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Modeling of Cognitive Biases Effects in Public Policy: Insights from Iran's Energy Price Change Policy
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Javad Sadat farizani *   , Yaser Sobhani Fard , Moini |
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Abstract: (292 Views) |
The research aims to identify, prioritize, and model cognitive biases influencing policy implementation, specifically focusing on the case of energy pricing in Iran.
The research methodology involves a comprehensive four-stage approach. Firstly, a literature review identifies 14 potential cognitive biases in public policy. In the second stage, eight influential individuals in formulating Iran's 2019 energy pricing policy provide input through the fuzzy Delphi method, confirming nine biases. Subsequently, the fuzzy DEMATEL method is applied for ranking and modeling these biases based on experts' opinions. This multi-step methodology enables a nuanced understanding of cognitive biases, emphasizing their relevance and relationships in energy policy decision-making.
The study identifies anchoring bias as a dominant factor in Iran's 2019 gasoline price policy, influencing decision-makers estimates. Ascertainment bias surfaces due to incomplete analyses, notably in the absence of comprehensive public surveys. Overconfidence emerges as a pivotal bias, shaping policymakers' unwarranted confidence. The fuzzy DEMATEL model illustrates the intricate interplay between these biases, offering insights for proactive mitigation strategies in public policy decision-making.
For the first time, this research seeks to investigate the harmful consequences of policymakers' cognitive biases on public perception, satisfaction, and potential unrest. Exploring uncharted territory, this study seeks to model the root causes of these adverse outcomes resulting from policymakers who make decisions under cognitive biases for all people |
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| Keywords: Cognitive Biases, Energy Pricing, Decision-Making. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1286 kb]
(80 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Management
Received: 2024/05/2 | Accepted: 2024/08/8 | Published: 2024/11/29
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